The Future of European Arms Control and the OSCE after the War in Ukraine

Abstract: The article explores prospects for arms control in Europe in the fundamentally changed European security landscape dominated by mutual deterrence by NATO and Russia. Distinguishing three types of arms control, it argues that, while “hard” arms control will take a long time, the urgent task is risk reduction to prevent direct engagement between NATO and Russia. A ceasefire in Ukraine, if and when it comes, should be supported by measures raising the threshold for the resumption of hostilities. In the aftermath of the war, the emphasis should be put on gradually rebuilding a minimum level of trust. The OSCE can have a central role in this endeavor.

Keywords: Europe – arms control – risk reduction – confidence- and security-building – NATO-Russia – OSCE

DOI: 10.58866/DIFB8733